The Sunday storm system is much less impressive than it appeared a few days ago.
When I was presented with the rumors earlier in the week that Sunday’s snow would amount to 4-8 inches, I expressed great skepticism. The storm was still out over the Pacific Ocean and was poorly sampled at that point. However, all computer models seemed to agree on a potent winter storm targeting the Ohio valley and even the National Weather Service was headlining the storm.
Once the storm came ashore and was better sampled, the storm intensity in computer projections began to decline. That trend has continued through this morning. 1-3 inches is still expected, but even that is still a tad sketchy. Why?
Pavement temperatures are very warm and the METRo road model is suggesting road surface temps will make it into the low to mid 40s Sunday afternoon. The sun is very warm this time of year. Even on a cloudy day, some of the sun’s radiation still makes it to the ground. Accumulation of snow tends to be inefficient during daylight hours with a high sun angle.
Sunday’s system has trended well to the south with the best moisture well south of the Ohio River. This decreases the chances of rain mixing in but temperatures will still be marginal. Snow may accumulate better on grass than on pavement, and there is still a chance some spots could get more than 3 inches of snow, but at this point it looks like most of the area will see a relatively low impact snow event.
For churchgoers, Sunday morning snow appears light with fairly minimal accumulations on pavement. Stay tuned to updates. Things could still change a bit, but right now Sunday’s storm just does not look like a major storm. It will get much colder for a few days, starting Sunday night.