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Sloppy Sunday Snow

An inch or two is forecast Sunday, mainly in the morning. Complicating the picture is cold ground temperatures and warm air temperatures. Much of the snow may melt on pavement but some accumulation and slick or slushy roads are possible. As cold air rushes in with a front late day, a few more snow showers and falling temperatures could produce slick spots for those traveling to super bowl parties.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw,
Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada,
Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney,
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City,
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City,
Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek,
Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster,
Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason,
Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan,
Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth,
and Wheelersburg
330 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

Snow will develop across the area late tonight. This will continue
through much of the morning and then taper off by early afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the 30s, and parts of northern Kentucky,
southeast Indiana, and southern Ohio could see the snow mix with
rain at times. Snow accumulations will generally be 1 to 2 inches,
although some areas along and south of the Ohio River will get
less than an inch.

Additional scattered snow showers will occur ahead of a cold front
that will sweep across the area late Sunday afternoon into the
early evening. Winds will become gusty as the front passes and
temperatures will start to fall.
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No big storm…yet. Cold and some snow look likely, and drought has expanded.

Last weekend computer model output was publicized for a late week snowstorm this week. The model spit out this solution:

Now that we are just a couple days away from this snowstorm, here are the watches and warnings heralding this snowstorm:

The observant among you may note that there are no watches and warnings. This is because there is no snowstorm. Ah, the dangers of posting those early model fantasies, something I try not to do. But I digress.

The models are showing generally cold weather over the next 2 weeks or more. There will also be an active weather pattern with several signals for snow systems. Details are sketchy but we could get more than one snow, or several smaller snows, as we head into February. Maybe. A general pattern does not always produce. The first potential for snow is this weekend in the Ohio valley, with another by the middle of next week. Nothing as fantastic as the map above, as far as we can tell, but these systems are worth paying attention to. Occasionally one overachieves.

The maps below show trends into the middle of February. Cold, with some snow east of the Rockies. California stays very warm and very dry.

Temperature

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

Another thing which has crept into the picture is drought. Much of the southern half of the country is in moderate to extreme drought, with the worst drought in Oklahoma, north Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri.The Dakotas are very dry as well.

Sample of U.S. Drought Monitor

We are entering the last month of meteorological winter. Meteorological spring starts in one month. The ground hog may extend that by a couple weeks. We will see.

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2 Snow Chances This Week, And Then There Were None (More Or Less)

I don’t like posting what computer models are saying a week out, especially in winter. Too little data goes into these early models so you end up with garbage in, garbage out. It leads to a lot of false hope and the impression that the weatherman doesn’t know what he is talking about. Actually, the weatherman does know what he is talking about and that is why responsible weathermen neither post early model projections without a lot of explanation nor jump on them as gospel.

Case in point is the projection from a few days ago for a late week snowstorm. Models were pretty bullish, and they generally agreed. Several young and foolish weather guys even posted this early map of model projections.

I am posting this map here not because it is the forecast, it isn’t, but because it was an early projection by a computer and it was put out there on some weather sites. Not this one. It illustrates my point.

Newer model data for late week shows this isn’t going to happen. In fact, very little may happen. This map wasn’t a forecast. It never was. It was an early model projection drawn from insufficient data input. While forecasters did add a good chance of snow to forecasts due to model agreement, they didn’t fully bite on this. Certainly not the amounts. As new data has come in, it is apparent very little will likely happen. I can’t rule out something, but it doesn’t look real likely right now.

Another weak system was projected to bring Cincinnati a little snow today. That one looks like a dud too although a dusting can’t be ruled out.

So, two potential snows. Now, very little if any. Another chance looms for late next weekend. I’m sure if a computer model can be found projecting 20 inches some gullible teenager who is desperate for website clicks will post it. For now, just be aware we may see snow on super bowl Sunday. Maybe. Very little chance it will be 20 inches. Stay tuned.