The Many Complexities Of Predicting and Communicating Weather

Forecasting is more accurate than ever, but mobile apps can still disagree wildly. What causes the difference – and which one is best?

Man looking at his smartphone on a sunny beach
Inaccurate apps can affect profits in the tourism industry. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

It was a tale of two storms. The first consisted of the rain and thunder forecast for Bournemouth by the BBC weather app on the Saturday spring bank holiday. The second came when the first failed to materialise and a tourism manager in the town complained that visitors who stayed away could have come after all and enjoyed sunshine and blue skies. Read more here in The Guardian>

Soil Moisture Condition Monitoring Weekly Report: Near Normal

Station Number: OH-HM-24
Station Name: Cheviot 3.4 W
Report Date: 6/30/2018
Submitted: 6/30/2018 5:56 AM
Scale Bar: Near Normal
Description:
 
0.50 inches of rain in the past 7 days. Soils were mildly wet a week ago. Temperatures are hot and drying rates fast. Conditions have dried some over the past week but vegetation remains lush, lawns are green and there are not currently signs of any drought stress.
 
Categories:
General Awareness
Agriculture
Plants & Wildlife

This report is specifically for the Arbor Doctor’s location 3.4 miles west of Cheviot, OH, in the western suburbs of Cincinnati in southwest Ohio. This location is also an official cooperative observation site for the National Weather Service listed as Cheviot 3W.

What is the Condition Monitoring Report? See these links for more information:

https://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=cm-scalebar

Search condition monitoring reports for the entire US>>>

Summer Heat Wave Expanding. July Is Looking Hot.

A summer heat wave is expanding over the central US and will be spreading eastward:

Heat indices in excess of 100, and in some cases 115, will be becoming increasingly prevalent:

heat

It doesn’t look like a significant break in the heat is likely anytime soon. The 8-14 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures over a wide area, and July is the hottest month of the year anyway, the peak of meteorological summer:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

The week 3 and 4 outlook shows the heat may shift west some, and relax a bit in the east:

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability

However, the overall July outlook is hot:

off14_temp.gif (719×668)

With all the heat, rainfall may be a bit sparse in many areas:

off14_prcp.gif (719×668)

heat

heat

Each National Weather Service Forecast Office issues some or all of the following heat-related products as conditions warrant. NWS local offices often collaborate with local partners to determine when an alert should be issued for a local area. For instance, residents of Florida are much more prepared for 90°F+ weather than residents in Alaska.

  • Excessive Heat Warning—Take Action! An Excessive Heat Warning is issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. The general rule of thumb for this Warning is when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 105° or higher for at least 2 days and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°; however, these criteria vary across the country, especially for areas not used to extreme heat conditions. If you don’t take precautions immediately when conditions are extreme, you may become seriously ill or even die.
  • Excessive Heat Watches—Be Prepared! Heat watches are issued when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 24 to 72 hours. A Watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain.
  • Heat Advisory—Take Action! A Heat Advisory is issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. The general rule of thumb for this Advisory is when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 100° or higher for at least 2 days, and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°; however, these criteria vary across the country, especially for areas that are not used to dangerous heat conditions. Take precautions to avoid heat illness. If you don’t take precautions, you may become seriously ill or even die.
  • Excessive Heat Outlooks are issued when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3-7 days. An Outlook provides information to those who need considerable lead-time to prepare for the event.

Stay Informed: Monitor local radio and television (including NOAA Weather Radio), internet and social media for information and updates.

+ How to Respond to Excessive Heat Events

+ Safety Tips for Parents

+ Community Interventions

+ Heat Safety for Outdoor Workers