The National Weather Service winter forecast called for normal to mild temperatures with flooding rains in the Ohio valley. After a week in late November that mirrored this exactly, the Ohio valley settled into a cold pattern with lots of relatively small snow systems which, when all was melted down, added up to a snowy but dry winter. Now, as we near the end of meteorological winter, the predicted pattern appears to be coming into play.
Monday’s rainfall was heavy and widespread, and it appears that it may only be the beginning. 1.98 inches of rain Monday propelled the February total to 3.15 inches, about a quarter inch above normal and only the third above normal month since October, 2009. There’s more where that came from.
It appears a large storm will drive up the Ohio valley Thursday dumping heavy rains in the Ohio river valley, heavy snows in the lower great lakes, and widespread severe weather in the deep south. Rainfall in this system could be similar to Monday’s storm in Cincinnati and even heavier in Kentucky. Severe storms may extend up into western Kentucky. Chicago has a chance at being dumped on again depending on the eventual track of the storm.
If this storm develops as expected, we could end February 2 or 3 inches above normal in rainfall (but below normal in snowfall!) with another wet storm system possible early next week. Monday’s rain drove area creeks to bank full and the Ohio river to 40 feet. Forecast rainfall may lead to river flooding if it materializes.