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A severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions of the Midwest this afternoon and evening. A few long-tracked, significant tornadoes are possible, along with large, damaging hail and severe gusts.

Mar 28, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

 
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in episodic arcs from midday through this evening across parts of central/eastern IA, eastern MO, IL, and IN, moving northward to northeastward generally at 45-60 kt. This will include supercells with tornadoes (some long-tracked and significant at EF2+ damage levels), large and sometimes very large hail, and occasionally severe non-tornadic gusts. Given the fast storm motions, any tornadoes that do form may persist for nearly as many miles as minutes of time — at least, until supercells cross more than a short distance into what should be a very sharp warm-frontal zone.
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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio:

.DAY ONE…Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area after midnight. There is the potential for a few storms to be severe with damaging straight-line winds the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Sunday through Friday.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected on Sunday.

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Soil Moisture Condition Monitoring Weekly Report: Moderately Wet

United States Drought Monitor

Station Number: OH-HM-24
Station Name: Cheviot 3.4 W
Report Date: 3/28/2020
Submitted: 3/28/2020 6:24 AM
Scale Bar: Moderately Wet
Description:

0.45 inches of rain in the last 7 days and 5.10 inches of rain in March. Rivers have fallen from flood and near flood stage. Soil is still saturated to near saturated. Swales are still very wet with diminishing standing water.

Categories:
General Awareness
Agriculture
Business & Industry
Plants & Wildlife

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This report is specifically for the Arbor Doctor’s location 3.4 miles west of Cheviot, OH, in the western suburbs of Cincinnati in southwest Ohio. This location is also an official cooperative observation site for the National Weather Service listed as Cheviot 3W.

What is the Condition Monitoring Report? See these links for more information:

Explanation of scale bar>>>

Search condition monitoring reports for the entire US>>>  

CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Report Map>>> 

 

Soil Moisture Index:

Meteorological Versus Astronomical Seasons. Spring is here!

Spring: March 1-May 31; Summer: June 1-August 31; Fall: September 1-November 30; Winter: December 1-February 28 (29)

You may have noticed that Arbor Doctor, meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. So, why do  meteorological and astronomical seasons begin and end at different times? Read more here>>>

Nearly half the country has had its coldest day by the first day of calendar winter. That is why meteorological winter makes the most sense.

 Spring leaf out (click on map to enlarge):

Comparison of 2020 spring leaf out to average from 1981-2010

Spring bloom index (Click on map to enlarge):

Comparison of 2020 spring bloom to average from 1981-2010
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Significant severe weather outbreak possible Saturday for portions of the middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The threats with the stronger storms include tornadoes, a few which may be significant, large to very large hail, and severe gusts. Large slight risk area extends into the Ohio valley.

A significant severe weather outbreak is possible for portions of the middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The threats with the stronger storms include tornadoes, a few which may be significant, large to very large hail, and severe gusts. Thunderstorms are expected on Saturday night in the Ohio valley. Some of  these storms may be severe, with a primary threat of damaging winds.

Saturday Tornado risk: