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Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Monday In The Southeast

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
406 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
406 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, 
Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West 
Central Ohio.

An area of low pressure will move across the region Tuesday 
night into Wednesday, bringing a chance of accumulating snow.

Monday Severe Outlook:

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR NORTHWEST 
GEORGIA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
TENNESSEE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes, damaging wind and hail are expected across parts 
of Middle Tennessee, much of northern Alabama, and northwest 
Georgia. A strong tornado or two is possible during the late 
afternoon. Severe wind is also possible into northern Florida.

 

 

NOAA has issued it’s spring forecast:

Read more here.

Arbor Doctor comments:

There seems to be a good chance of an active severe weather season this spring with cold air to the northwest coming into conflict with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will also lead to chances for heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding at least in localized areas.

After a cold start, it looks like spring will eventually kick into gear and average fairly warm over much of the country. The cool start may decrease the chances of late freeze damage.

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Areas affected...Central and Southeast KY...Northeast TN...Extreme Southwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171925Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over central KY this afternoon, spreading/developing east-southeastward into adjacent parts of TN and VA. Large hail will be possible in the stronger cells. A watch is likely in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops show a corridor of increasing cumulus development over north-central KY. This is in vicinity of a weak surface low that will track southeastward across the discussion area during the afternoon and early evening. Strong heating is occurring in the warm sector of the low, resulting in substantial heating and destabilization. Meanwhile, low-level moisture is slowly returning to this area with dewpoints now in the 50s. Present indications are that storms will initiate near the surface low in the next 1-2 hours and spread southeastward across parts of southeast KY and into northeast TN and western VA. Sufficient CAPE and favorable effective shear/mid-level lapse rates will promote rotating cells capable of large hail. Locally damaging winds may also occur if storms can congeal and develop upscale several hours from now. ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/17/2018