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Mesoscale Discussion 0127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 Areas affected...Central and Southeast KY...Northeast TN...Extreme Southwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171925Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over central KY this afternoon, spreading/developing east-southeastward into adjacent parts of TN and VA. Large hail will be possible in the stronger cells. A watch is likely in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops show a corridor of increasing cumulus development over north-central KY. This is in vicinity of a weak surface low that will track southeastward across the discussion area during the afternoon and early evening. Strong heating is occurring in the warm sector of the low, resulting in substantial heating and destabilization. Meanwhile, low-level moisture is slowly returning to this area with dewpoints now in the 50s. Present indications are that storms will initiate near the surface low in the next 1-2 hours and spread southeastward across parts of southeast KY and into northeast TN and western VA. Sufficient CAPE and favorable effective shear/mid-level lapse rates will promote rotating cells capable of large hail. Locally damaging winds may also occur if storms can congeal and develop upscale several hours from now. ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/17/2018 |
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