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Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018 Areas affected...Swrn through nern Ohio...nwrn Pennsylvania...wrn New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121958Z - 130000Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow at up to 1 inch per hour rates may develop across areas near and southeast of Lake Erie through the 4-8 PM EST time frame. DISCUSSION...As large-scale upper troughing continues to dig into portions of the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region, and another trough pivots across and northeast of the Tennessee Valley, models indicate an area of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic forcing across parts of the lower Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region by early evening. Associated lift, including through the favorable dendritic growth zone, appears likely to be accompanied by a band of increasing precipitation rates across roughly the Interstate-71 corridor of Ohio, into the Cleveland metro area, and east northeastward through Buffalo and surrounding areas of western New York state. Coinciding with further low/mid-level cooling to sub-freezing temperatures, as a sharp cold front steadily advances southeastward, this is expected to become mostly moderate to heavy snow. This may include at least a couple hour period at rates near or in excess of 1 inch per hour, before heavier snow begins to develop/shift off to the east northeast of the lower Great Lakes region this evening. |