Severe Storm Potential In East Central Kentucky, TN, VA

MD 127 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0127
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

   Areas affected...Central and Southeast KY...Northeast TN...Extreme
   Southwest VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171925Z - 172130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over central
   KY this afternoon, spreading/developing east-southeastward into
   adjacent parts of TN and VA.  Large hail will be possible in the
   stronger cells.  A watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops show a corridor of increasing
   cumulus development over north-central KY.  This is in vicinity of a
   weak surface low that will track southeastward across the discussion
   area during the afternoon and early evening.  Strong heating is
   occurring in the warm sector of the low, resulting in substantial
   heating and destabilization.  Meanwhile, low-level moisture is
   slowly returning to this area with dewpoints now in the 50s.

   Present indications are that storms will initiate near the surface
   low in the next 1-2 hours and spread southeastward across parts of
   southeast KY and into northeast TN and western VA.  Sufficient CAPE
   and favorable effective shear/mid-level lapse rates will promote
   rotating cells capable of large hail.  Locally damaging winds may
   also occur if storms can congeal and develop upscale several hours
   from now.

   ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/17/2018

Soil Moisture Condition Monitoring Weekly Report

Station Number: OH-HM-24

Station Name: Cheviot 3.4 W

Report Date: 3/17/2018
Submitted: 3/17/2018 7:04 AM
Scale Bar: Mildly Wet
Description:
0.25 inch liquid in the past 7 days. 1.0 inch of snow in the past 7 days. Below average liquid of 0.76 inch in March after a very wet February. With cold temperatures, soils are only slowly drying out. Still wet areas and runoff. Waterways returning to normal levels.
Categories: General Awareness
Agriculture
Plants & Wildlife

This report is specifically for the Arbor Doctor’s location 3.4 miles west of Cheviot, OH, in the western suburbs of Cincinnati in southwest Ohio. This location is also an official cooperative observation site for the National Weather Service listed as Cheviot 3W.

What is the Condition Monitoring Report? See these links for more information:

https://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=cm-scalebar

Search condition monitoring reports for the entire US>>>

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY…

[4:05 PM] We may have sunny skies right now, but a mix of rain and freezing rain will overspread the area late tonight. Greatest threat for ice accumulation will be in parts of Miami Valley and central Ohio. Little to no ice south of OH River. Exercise caution late tonight!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
235 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-060-070>072-077>082-088-170245-
/O.EXB.KILN.WW.Y.0013.180317T0400Z-180317T1600Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Preble-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Kenton, Ada, Eaton, Camden,
Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon,
Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Cincinnati, Milford,
Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union,
Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
235 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total ice accumulations of
  up to a tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and
  South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel
  conditions. Be prepared for slippery roads early Saturday
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. Additional information can be found at
www.weather.gov/iln as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.